Sources

An appendix to the website. Numbers 1 to 4 sit next to the quotes on the home page, the other sources support them. Under each number you will find the original, our translation for sources in Russian, publication details and the URL, and where available the date we captured the page and a clipping with the quote highlighted.

1L. Hudson, EY · study of 192 projects, 2022
2B. MacKinnon, T. McNulty et al., Hatch · ramp-up series, 2025
3P. Alferov · audience vote, PM Forum 2026
4A. Kutuzov, PM Excellence · Mining Industry journal, 2024
5B. MacKinnon, T. McNulty, P. Mackey, Hatch · on the generational shift in the industry, 2026
6Hatch · ramp-up curves as a diagnostic tool, 2025
7B. MacKinnon, T. McNulty, P. Mackey, Hatch · on early project decisions, 2026
8T. McNulty, B. MacKinnon, P. Mackey · COPR conference, Springer, 2025
9McKinsey & Company · on mining feasibility studies, 2019
10McKinsey & Company · on mining project delivery, 2024
11L. Valle, Arafura Resources · ALTA conference, 2022

1L. Hudson, EY · study of 192 projects, 2022

Original: «A June 2021 study of 192 global mining and metals projects worth more than US$1b found that 64% ran over budget or schedule – or both – with the average cost overrun sitting at 39%.»
Publication: EY, L. Hudson, “How better project management can boost mining’s capital productivity”, 2022
URL: ey.com/en_qa/insights/energy-resources/how-better-project-management-can-boost-minings-capital-productivity
Captured: 5 October 2026

EY: A June 2021 study of 192 global mining and metals projects worth more than US$1b found that 64% ran over budget or schedule – or both – with the average cost overrun sitting at 39%. — Clipping of the source page, quote highlighted

2B. MacKinnon, T. McNulty et al., Hatch · ramp-up series, 2025

Original: «Mature technology previously used in successful projects. Detailed pilot scale testing completed. Prior existing licenses for applicable cases. Educated and informed workforce. Experienced and committed supervisory staff. Technical support during commissioning and ramp-up.»
Publication: B. MacKinnon, T. McNulty, P. Mackey, Hatch, “The ramp-up series. Beyond the curves. Part 1”, October 2025, based on T. McNulty’s 1998 study
Data age: T. McNulty’s data were collected in 1998, and the curves were updated in 2004, 2014 and 2024, see 8. The curves on the home page are our drawing based on his chart in this publication.
URL: hatch.com/About-Us/Publications/Blogs/2025/09/The-Ramp-up-Series-Beyond-the-Curves
Captured: 5 October 2026

Hatch, The ramp-up series. Series 1: Mature technology previously used in successful projects. Detailed pilot scale testing completed. Prior existing licenses for applicable cases. Educated and informed workforce. Experienced and committed supervisory staff. Technical support during commissioning and ramp-up. — Clipping of the source page, quote highlighted

3P. Alferov · audience vote, PM Forum 2026

Original: «Отраслевик побеждает универсала. При найме сегодня отраслевая экспертиза перевешивает методологическую втрое.»
Translation by KPD-Expert: “The industry specialist beats the generalist. In hiring today, industry expertise outweighs methodological expertise three to one.”
Publication: Pavel Alferov, audience vote results at a PM Forum 2026 lightning panel, about 85 people in the room · Russia
URL: t.me/Pavel_Alferov_RIM_III/1240
Captured: 5 October 2026

Pavel Alferov’s post about PM Forum 2026: The industry specialist beats the generalist. In hiring today, industry expertise outweighs methodological expertise three to one. — Clipping of the source page, quote highlighted

4A. Kutuzov, PM Excellence · Mining Industry journal, 2024

Original: «Второй — очень поздно подключаются специалисты, которые будут эксплуатировать будущий объект. Условно, главный инженер ГОКа приходит тогда, когда все основные решения уже приняты, но с ним не согласованы.»
Translation by KPD-Expert: “The second is that the specialists who will operate the future facility come in very late. Roughly speaking, the chief engineer of a mining complex comes in when all the main decisions have already been made, but without his sign-off.”
Publication: Alexander Kutuzov, PM Excellence, interview “A mining complex on time” for Mining Industry journal, 2024, as republished on the PM Excellence website · Russia
URL: pmexcellence.com/news/article/gok-v-srok-kak-upravlyat-proektami-v-gornoy-otrasli/
Captured: 5 October 2026

The second is that the specialists who will operate the future facility come in very late. Roughly speaking, the chief engineer of a mining complex comes in when all the main decisions have already been made, but without his sign-off. — Clipping of the source page, quote highlighted

5B. MacKinnon, T. McNulty, P. Mackey, Hatch · on the generational shift in the industry, 2026

Original: «Today, a generational shift is underway across the industry. Highly experienced engineers, operators, and project leaders are retiring faster than they are being replaced.»
Publication: B. MacKinnon, T. McNulty, P. Mackey, Hatch, “The ramp-up series. Beyond the curves. Part 6”, July 2026
URL: hatch.com/About-Us/Publications/Blogs/2026/07/Part-6-The-ramp-up-series-Beyond-the-curves
Captured: 5 October 2026

Hatch, The ramp-up series, Part 6: Today, a generational shift is underway across the industry. Highly experienced engineers, operators, and project leaders are retiring faster than they are being replaced. — Clipping of the source page, quote highlighted

6Hatch · ramp-up curves as a diagnostic tool, 2025

Original: «The curves are now widely used as a diagnostic tool by operating companies and project financing firms.»
Publication: Hatch, “The ramp-up series. Beyond the curves. Part 1”, October 2025
URL: hatch.com/About-Us/Publications/Blogs/2025/09/The-Ramp-up-Series-Beyond-the-Curves
Captured: 5 October 2026

7B. MacKinnon, T. McNulty, P. Mackey, Hatch · on early project decisions, 2026

Original: «The most critical decisions occur early in the project life cycle, so we need to have experienced people during concept development, feasibility studies, and commissioning planning.»
Publication: B. MacKinnon, T. McNulty, P. Mackey, Hatch, “The ramp-up series. Beyond the curves. Part 6”, July 2026
URL: hatch.com/About-Us/Publications/Blogs/2026/07/Part-6-The-ramp-up-series-Beyond-the-curves
Captured: 5 October 2026

Hatch, The ramp-up series, Part 6: The most critical decisions occur early in the project life cycle, so we need to have experienced people during concept development, feasibility studies, and commissioning planning. — Clipping of the source page, quote highlighted

8T. McNulty, B. MacKinnon, P. Mackey · COPR conference, Springer, 2025

Original: «Updates were presented in 2004, 2014, and 2024. The interpretations of success and failure have remained unchanged, i.e., quality of underlying information, development of process design criteria, experience and commitment of the project owner, and avoidance of fast-track schedules that could suppress careful decision making.»
Publication: T. McNulty, B. MacKinnon, P. Mackey, “McNulty Curves — An Update and New Perspectives”, COPR 2025 conference, Springer
URL: link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-032-00102-3_102
Captured: 5 October 2026

Springer, McNulty Curves — An Update and New Perspectives: Updates were presented in 2004, 2014, and 2024. The interpretations of success and failure have remained unchanged, i.e., quality of underlying information, development of process design criteria, experience and commitment of the project owner, and avoidance of fast-track schedules that could suppress careful decision making. — Clipping of the source page, quote highlighted

9McKinsey & Company · on mining feasibility studies, 2019

Original: «Embed owner’s operations and maintenance representatives into the FS contractor’s project team, bringing in-depth knowledge of the company’s operating processes and challenges.»
Publication: McKinsey & Company, «Optimizing mining feasibility studies. The $100 billion opportunity», 2019
URL: mckinsey.com/industries/metals-and-mining/our-insights/optimizing-mining-feasibility-studies-the-100-billion-opportunity
Captured: 5 October 2026

McKinsey: Embed owner’s operations and maintenance representatives into the FS contractor’s project team, bringing in-depth knowledge of the company’s operating processes and challenges. — Clipping of the source page, quote highlighted

10McKinsey & Company · on mining project delivery, 2024

Original: «For example, a leading natural resources company delivered a $2.5 billion project in North America during the COVID-19 pandemic with cost overruns and schedule delays smaller and shorter than those of its peers. To achieve this, the company strengthened the owners’ team in key roles with additional internal and external capabilities.»
Publication: McKinsey & Company, “The capex crystal ball. Beating the odds in mining project delivery”, November 2024
URL: mckinsey.com/industries/metals-and-mining/our-insights/the-capex-crystal-ball-beating-the-odds-in-mining-project-delivery
Captured: 5 October 2026

McKinsey: For example, a leading natural resources company delivered a $2.5 billion project in North America during the COVID-19 pandemic with cost overruns and schedule delays smaller and shorter than those of its peers. To achieve this, the company strengthened the owners’ team in key roles with additional internal and external capabilities. — Clipping of the source page, quote highlighted

11L. Valle, Arafura Resources · ALTA conference, 2022

Original: «Of the three large scale and integrated mine-to-metal projects, Ambatovy had the most improved performance, achieving more than 80% of its design capacity in Year 4 after start-up. This achievement had been largely credited to the inception of PEI (Performance Enhancement Initiative) team, a specialised taskforce consisting of SMEs (Subject Matter Experts) and seasoned operators, which helped with the process and mechanical debottlenecking of the process plant. […] Even though, the PEI team was only small in numbers (a dozen members at any given time), it was able to deploy resources efficiently and helped the entire facility achieved its best operating year and financial completion.»
Publication: L. Valle (Arafura Resources), ALTA 2022 keynote, pp. 6 and 16 of the PDF
URL: d3e2i5nuh73s15.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/ALTA-2022-NCC-Keynote-Address-Arafura.pdf

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